Tropical Depression Could Form Late This Week in Atlantic, Track Toward Caribbean

A storm system in the central Atlantic Ocean, Oct. 16, 2024. (Credit: CIMSS Tropical Weather)

A tropical depression could form late this week from a disturbance approaching the Leeward Islands in the far-eastern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the disturbance has a 30 percent chance of development over the next two days, but a 50 percent chance of development over the next week. A potential track published by the NHC predicted the system would track near the east coast of the Florida peninsula, however model runs early Wednesday indicated the storm would remain further south as it treks westward across the ocean.

“This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week,” the NHC said. “A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.”

Meanwhile, a separate system was producing showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with a broad area of low pressure off Panama and Costa Rica. This system was forecast to hug the Central American coast and ultimately turn inland near the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC predicted a low probability of development, and a track that would move it away from the Gulf of Mexico.